Law of the Day | 1130

Perhaps the best way to keep more than one outcome in mind is to develop scenarios. I’ve written before about the scenario-planning method: scenarios are persuasive, coherent stories about the future, and like all good stories they have a tendency to stick with the listener. A scenario-planner will create at least two contradictory stories — this helps people to keep an open mind, and to prepare for more than one outcome.

Tim Harford, ‘Why forecasters failed to predict Trump’s victory’

[x]#12791 fan woensdag 30 november 2016 @ 00:10:31